Participatory Methods

Future scenarios

The Future Scenarios activity invites participants to imagine how a topic, project, or situation might develop under different conditions in the future. Using creative narratives, visualizations, or graphic representations, this activity fosters the exploration of possibilities, anticipates challenges, and generates innovative ideas for design and planning.

Preparation

  1. Define the context: Identify the topic or project to be explored (e.g., the future of a community, product, service, or policy).
  2. Set time horizons: Decide whether the scenarios will focus on the short, medium, or long term (e.g., 5, 10, or 20 years).
  3. Prepare materials:
    • Large paper, whiteboards, or digital tools.
    • Colored markers, sticky notes, scenario templates.

Step-by-step instructions

  1. Introduction to the purpose
    • Explain the importance of imagining future scenarios for planning and design.
    • Introduce the topic or project and define the time horizon.
    • Share examples of future scenarios to inspire participants.
  2. Define initial conditions
    • Work with participants to identify key factors that could influence the future of the topic (e.g., technology, policies, social changes).
    • Group the factors into categories, such as opportunities, threats, or uncertainties.
  3. Create scenarios
    • Divide the group into teams and assign each one the task of developing a specific scenario based on combinations of key factors.
    • Examples of scenarios:
      • Optimistic: Positive factors are maximized.
      • Pessimistic: Threats dominate.
      • Innovative: Disruptive solutions emerge.
      • Conservative: Minimal changes occur.
    • Ask teams to describe what the future would look like in their scenario using narratives, drawings, or diagrams.
  4. Present scenarios
    • Each team presents its scenario to the rest of the group, highlighting key elements, opportunities, and risks.
    • Encourage questions and feedback between teams.
  5. Comparative analysis
    • Review the scenarios together and analyze similarities, differences, and emerging patterns:
      • What elements are common across all scenarios?
      • What risks or challenges stand out?
      • What innovative ideas can be integrated into the present?
  6. Reflection and synthesis
    • Facilitate a discussion on how the future scenarios can inform current decisions.
    • Summarize key learnings and prioritize the most relevant ideas for the group or project.
Recommendations
  • Diversity in teams: Ensure participants with different perspectives and experiences are included.
  • Clarity in rules: Clearly define the factors and conditions to avoid confusion.
  • Creative flexibility: Allow teams to use various media to express their scenarios (drawings, stories, diagrams).
  • Documentation: Record the created scenarios for analysis and future reference.

 

Inspiration

 

Materials
  • Large paper, whiteboards, or digital tools to document the scenarios.
  • Colored markers, sticky notes, and scenario templates.
  • Projector.

 

Online platforms
Purpose
The purpose of Future Scenarios is to explore possible pathways for the development of a project, community, or situation, anticipating risks, leveraging opportunities, and generating innovative ideas. This activity fosters creativity, strategic reflection, and informed planning. 
Type of activity
Participatory DesignParticipatory LearningParticipatory Planning
Level of participation
Collaboration, Shared decision-making, Knowledge generation
Target audience
Community leaders, NGOs and social collectives, Business teams, Government, Creative designers, Researchers
Fields of application
Education and training, Community development, Organizational and business management, Urban and rural planning, Health and social well-being, Art, culture, and creativity, Sustainability and environment, Public policies and governance, Innovation and design, Research and evaluation, Conflict resolution, Technology and digital environments, Citizen and social participation
Estimated duration
From 90 to 120 minutes, depending on the number of teams and scenarios created. 
Ideal number of participants
From 8 to 25 people, organized into teams of 3 to 5 participants to facilitate collaboration. 
Topics related to this activity
Building Possible FuturesCollaborative DiagnosisCollaborative LearningCollective AnalysisCollective DiagnosisCollective LearningFuture ScenariosKnowledge GenerationParticipatory AnalysisParticipatory DesignParticipatory DiagnosisParticipatory StorytellingPerspective ExchangeRisk AnticipationVisual DocumentationVisual Narrative
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