Participatory Methods

Guess the Number

Guess the Number is a participatory activity designed as a simple and practical introduction to the Delphi prediction method. It allows participants to observe how the accuracy of estimates improves through modified and repeated approaches. The activity uses jars filled with small objects like candies, beans, or small pieces to encourage group analysis, reflection on strategies, and informed decision-making.

Preparation

  1. Define the purpose:
    • Introduce the Delphi prediction method in a practical way.
    • Demonstrate how accuracy improves through repetitive and collaborative approaches.
    • Encourage reflection on the estimation process and group critical thinking.
  2. Prepare the materials:
    • A transparent jar filled with small objects (e.g., candies, beans, marbles).
    • Optional variations: jars of different sizes, objects of various colors or sizes.
    • Sheets or cards for participants to write down their estimates.
    • A pen or pencil for each participant.
    • Optional: calculator or spreadsheet to calculate averages.
  3. Set up the space:
    • Place the jar in a visible spot for all participants.
    • Arrange seats in a circle or semicircle to encourage interaction during the group discussion.
  4. To run the activity virtually:
    • Share clear images of the jars and their contents using platforms like Questiory, Miro, or Mural.
    • Ask participants to submit their estimates through polls or interactive tools.
    • Share the results and calculations in real time using a virtual whiteboard or shared document.

Step-by-step instructions

  1. First round
    • Each participant observes the jar and silently writes down their estimate of the number of objects.
    • Collect the estimates and display them somewhere visible to the group (e.g., whiteboard or flipchart).
  2. Second round
    • Share the group’s estimates (displaying the results of the first round).
    • Invite participants to reflect and revise their estimates based on the shared information.
    • Collect the revised estimates and display them again.
  3. Third round
    • Repeat the process, encouraging participants to make a final estimate based on observed patterns.
    • Calculate the average of the final estimates by summing all the answers and dividing the total by the number of participants.
  4. Reveal the result
    • Share the actual number of objects in the jar.
    • Discuss with the group how accuracy changed across the rounds and what factors contributed to it.
Recommendations
  1. Vary the jars and objects: Use jars of different sizes and objects with various shapes or colors to add difficulty and variety.
  2. Encourage analysis: Invite participants to discuss the strategies they used to make their estimates.
  3. Include variations: Experiment with the number of rounds or introduce time constraints for estimating.
  4. Highlight patterns: During the final reflection, help the group identify how the collective estimates moved closer to the actual value.
  5. Use technology: In virtual sessions, use polling tools and digital whiteboards to facilitate participation.
Inspiration

Ideas to enrich the activity

  • Use jars with mixed-size objects to increase complexity.
  • Add a round where participants collaborate to reach a group estimate before the final average.
  • Use themed jars (e.g., colorful candies for a fun activity, coins for a financial context).
  • Connect the activity to a relevant topic for the group, such as decision-making or managing uncertainty.
  • Introduce a friendly competition between subgroups to encourage teamwork.
  • Offer symbolic prizes for the estimates closest to the average or the actual number.
  • Share visual graphs showing how estimates evolved across rounds for further analysis.
  • At the end, ask participants to reflect on how they could apply this iterative process in real-life situations.

Ideas for filling the jar

  • Candies of different colors or sizes.
  • Mixed beans or legumes.
  • Glass marbles.
  • Coins of various denominations.
  • Colored paper clips.
  • Small Lego pieces.
  • Buttons of various shapes and sizes.
  • Recycled bottle caps.
  • Cotton balls or small sponges.
  • Rolled rubber bands.

Possible applications of the activity

  • Inventory planning: Simulate scenarios where participants must estimate accurate quantities for purchasing or storage decisions.
  • Market forecasting training: Introduce participants to data analysis to estimate sales, product demand, or trends in a business context.
  • Introduction to statistics: Use the activity to teach concepts like averages, standard deviation, and estimation accuracy.
  • Logistics scenario simulation: Apply the exercise to activities involving supply counting, distribution, or resource management.
  • Leadership and teamwork evaluation: Observe how participants lead discussions, build consensus, and collaborate to improve collective estimates.
Materials
  • A transparent jar filled with small objects (e.g., candies, beans, marbles).
  • Sheets or cards to record the estimates.
  • Pencils or pens.
  • Optional: calculator or digital tools for calculations.
Online platforms
Purpose
The purpose of Guess the Number is to introduce the Delphi prediction method in a simple and practical way, allowing participants to observe how estimates become more accurate through iterative and collaborative approaches. It also promotes analytical thinking, reflection, and teamwork skills.
Type of activity
Participatory BudgetingParticipatory EvaluationParticipatory InteractionParticipatory Learning
Level of participation
Collaboration, Exchange of perspectives
Target audience
Students, NGOs and social collectives, Business teams
Fields of application
Community development, Organizational and business management, Art, culture, and creativity, Innovation and design, Research and evaluation, Citizen and social participation
Estimated duration
30-40 minutes.
Ideal number of participants
10-20 people.
Topics related to this activity
Análisis críticoCollaborative Decision-MakingCollective ReflectionCreative CommunicationCreative Problem SolvingCreative ReflectionCritical AnalysisExperiential LearningGamificationInclusive ParticipationTeamworkVisual MethodologyVisual Reflection
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